TEHRAN PAPERS

Diplomacy in Paris

November 28, 2025 - 22:16

TEHRAN - Etemad, in an interview with geopolitics professor Abdolreza Faraji-Rad, examined the strategic dimensions of Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi’s trip to Paris and the prospects for reviving nuclear diplomacy based on Iran's honorable terms.

This visit marks the first official meeting of Iran’s foreign minister with a member of the European troika following the recent resolution (by the IAEA Board of Governors). It comes at a time when France is attempting to position itself as a potential mediator between Tehran and the West. Faraji-Rad believes Araghchi’s trip to Paris presents a multilayered opportunity to break the current deadlock. France seeks the release of its detained nationals, aims to reassert its mediating role between Iran and the United States, and is concerned about the implications of the Ukraine peace process as well as the uncertain status of Iran’s enriched materials following the June raids on Iran’s nuclear sites by the U.S. and the Israeli regime. In his view, Europe lacks a direct lever to cancel the “snapback” mechanism, but in coordination with Washington, it could propose a temporary “concession-for-concession” formula. If the negotiations begin this time, the bitter lessons of Trump’s 12‑day war and the shared desire of all parties to avoid confrontation make success more likely than in previous rounds.

Sobh-e-No: Saudi admits Iran key to Mideast stability

In an analysis, Sob-he-No highlighted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s concerns over the adventurism of the Zionist regime. Citing Lebanon’s Al‑Akhbar, the paper noted a significant development: for the first time, the Saudi de facto leader, in an official meeting with Trump in Washington, expressed his worries about Israeli adventurism and emphasized the necessity of reaching an agreement with Iran to stabilize regional security. This shift carries several strategic messages: first, Saudi Arabia has concluded that continuing a policy of pressure and confrontation against Iran is futile and only increases its security costs. The Yemen battlefield, the failure of U.S. anti‑Iran projects, and Israel’s unsuccessful attempts to contain Tehran have pushed Riyadh toward recalculating its approach. Second, Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned about the possibility of Israel embarking on a new adventure. Recent developments show that Netanyahu, seeking to escape domestic crises and military setbacks, is willing to escalate tensions at any level. For Riyadh, this poses a serious threat. Third, Riyadh now recognizes that any regional security architecture collapses quickly without Iran’s participation, just as U.S. security schemes in past years failed one after another.

Khorasan: Possible emergence of a post‑war confrontation 
Khorasan examined the nighttime entry of Israeli fighter jets into Iraqi airspace and their loud flights along Iran’s western borders. The paper argued that these incursions are no longer isolated incidents but should now be understood as part of a new architecture of confrontation following the 12‑day war. Israeli air operations near Iran’s borders can be analyzed on three levels: operational, psychological‑political, and strategic. For security analysts, the operational level is most critical. Through these maneuvers, Tel Aviv is preparing for a short war, one based on speed, surprise, and sudden strikes, where even a few minutes’ delay in defensive response could alter the outcome. Israel faced a bitter reality during the 12‑day war: its deterrence against Iran had been weakened. Demonstrating air power along Iran’s borders is an attempt to repair this gap. At the strategic level, normalizing the threat is also significant. By repeating such flights until they lose their shock value, Israel seeks to turn danger into routine behavior, paving the way for a major surprise later. The timing of these flights, coinciding with renewed diplomatic activity between Iran and the United States, is notable. Israel aims to cast a permanent shadow of threat over any potential negotiations.

Ettelaat: Importance of ties with two Eastern powers
Ettelaat highlighted the importance of Iran’s ties with Russia and China. Given the extensive Western sanctions, Iran has placed special emphasis on economic cooperation with these two powers: China and Russia. China is Iran’s largest oil buyer, while Russia ranks among its biggest foreign investors. Iran is also active in military cooperation with both countries, which enhances its defense capabilities against regional and international threats. For Iran, relations with China and Russia offer significant economic, military, and diplomatic opportunities. Yet they also carry risks such as excessive dependency, lack of firm support, and economic competition. Because of the weight of these ties, the state of relations between Moscow and Beijing is itself crucial for Iran. Some observers argue that the stronger the bonds between Russia and China, the greater the opportunities for Iran to align with Beijing and Moscow and pursue its national interests. Ultimately, Iran must safeguard its interests within the complex interplay of conflict and cooperation among global powers, both Eastern and Western.

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